Identifying
Global Economic Trends Ahead of the Curve …

ABOUT-
US

MacroMavens has been delivering prescient insights on emerging macroeconomic trends and their implications for global financial markets for nearly 20 years.  The firm was founded in 2002 by Stephanie Pomboy, who spent the prior decade working with Ed Hyman at CJ Lawrence and ISI Group.  Recognizing that the greatest investment opportunities lie where market perception has strayed from economic reality, MacroMavens scrupulously analyzes the data, delving beneath the surface, to find hints of shifting trends.  Our rigorous analytic approach and willingness to take on the conventional wisdom have consistently enabled us to identify major macroeconomic events – and steer our clients around them — well ahead of the curve.  We see the trends that noise-obsessed, consensus thinkers on Wall Street miss.

Major Calls

April 2002

MacroMavens identified the impending inflation of the housing bubble in 2002—before it was even the subject of debate.

June 2006

Argued that financials were just the other side of the housing coin and would get hit as housing bubble burst (2 years early)

Dec 2007

Argued that the fallout from the housing and credit bust would drive the US economy into biggest downturn since the Great Depression.

March 2008

Repeated warnings about financial collapse.

March 2010

Written when QE1 ended, we argued that QE2 would shortly follow.

June 2012

Written in the month that QE2 ended, we argued that QE3 would shortly follow.

March 2018

Incessant hand-wringing over the ‘government bond bubble’ misses the point.  Global central banks will continue to monetize government debt.  Corporate credits are the danger area.

Dec 2018

Called Fed pause QT and rate hikes - and forthcoming reversal of both.

Jan 2019

The role that buybacks have played in boosting profits and stock prices will be revealed in its absence.

July 2019

Expectations for 1-2 more rate cuts woefully underestimate the amount of stimulus to come.  The corporate credit bust and pension crisis to follow will make QE1, 2 and 3 look like a warm-up.

Our Team

The MacroMavens team has more than 50years combined experience in the financial industry, at the top Wall Street research firms and investment managers.

Our Work

…eschews the dangerous fixation on short-term squiggles. It is not for herd-followers or daytraders.  Our singular focus is on identifying emerging economic trends – likely policy response – and the market implications associated therewith.  It’s a serious endeavor.  But that doesn’t mean it needs to be boring! We convey our conclusions in a lively, digestible and frequently off-color commentary.

Our Work

…eschews the dangerous fixation on short-term squiggles. It is not for herd-followers or daytraders.  Our singular focus is on identifying emerging economic trends – likely policy response – and the market implications associated therewith.  It’s a serious endeavor.  But that doesn’t mean it needs to be boring! We convey our conclusions in a lively, digestible and frequently off-color commentary.

Our Clients

…are thoughtful, sophisticated institutions and individuals looking to sidestep market pitfalls and exploit emerging investment opportunities.

Our Mission

…first and foremost is to get it right. In an era where investors suffer an excess of useless information and a dearth of useful interpretation MacroMavens does the opposite.  Our deep knowledge of the data (including what indicators are valuable at a given point in time and which are not) enable us to unearth, like truffle-sniffing hogs — the macroeconomic treasures hidden beneath and to identify emerging economic trends ahead of the curve.

Our Mission

…first and foremost is to get it right. In an era where investors suffer an excess of useless information and a dearth of useful interpretation MacroMavens does the opposite.  Our deep knowledge of the data (including what indicators are valuable at a given point in time and which are not) enable us to unearth, like truffle-sniffing hogs — the macroeconomic treasures hidden beneath and to identify emerging economic trends ahead of the curve.

MEDIA

MacroMavens is frequently cited in industry publicationsfrom Barron’s to Fortune, to The Wall Street Journal.  And Stephanie has been the subject of countless interviews on Bloomberg, Fox Business, Real Vision and CNBC.

2017

2018

2013

2014

2011

 

2005

 

2019

 

TESTI-
MONIALS

May 3, 2017

Fox Business

Stephanie Pomboy, whose scintillating and informative MacroMavens is on our short list of must weekly reads just put out one of her periodic issues devoted to trading tips. …she points out, $1 trillion in adjustable-rate mortgages are slated to reset in the next 18 months and no less than half of these will hit subprime borrowers.  So she recommends shorting subprime lenders …go long 10-year Treasuries, while shorting junk.

Oct 31 2005

Alan Abelson, Barron’s

The chart that accompanies these scribblings is the handiwork of Stephanie Pomboy, who puts out a new, smart, informative and quite lively economic commentary called MacroMavens which, as its name implies, focuses on the big picture (… what economists did before they became minutiae addicts)

May 27, 2002

Barron’s

There may be nobody smarter about the economy and markets than Stephanie Pomboy, founder of economic research firm MacroMavens (www.macromavens.com).  I always learn something when I read or speak to Stephanie, which is about the highest compliment I can pay anybody.  She is in a class by herself when it comes to looking at economic data with an objective eye and connecting the dots without paying heed to the maddening crowd.

Apr 1, 2018

Michael Lewitt, The Credit Strategist

Stephanie Pomboy of the boutique research firm MacroMavens provides insightful counterpoint… ‘the decline in the money multiplier is not the cause for…but the consequence of liquidity chasing financial assets… Before you know it (the Fed) will have disintermediated themselves right out of the picture.  This is novel thinking.

May 27, 2002

Caldwell & Orkin Monthly Update

We hope this statistic is wrong, but knowing the source we suspect that it is indeed the truth and therefore rather frightening: consumer credit has risen $2.3 trillion here in the US over the course of the past three years and a whopping 44% of that is tied directly to short term interest rates.  This is according to Stephanie Pomboy, who has proven to be incredibly prescient and incredibly insightful when it comes to this sort of concern and this sort of data mining in the realm of consumer credit

May 11, 2004

The Gartman Letter

We’d like to credit Stephanie Pomboy, the iconoclastic author of the weekly MacroMavens.  We’ve made appreciative mention of Stephanie’s stuff on more than one occasion. But what prompts this kudo is a negative call she made on crude oil May 21, just before it peaked..

May 31, 2004

Barron’s

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